Oriental Daily (東方日報) – Silver prices expected to rise by 20% this year
Oriental Daily (東方日報), Monday, 17 May 2021 – Silver prices expected to rise by 20% this year
The coronavirus pandemic has raged around the world for nearly a year and a half and has not subsided. Central banks in various nations have to “release water” to support the economy, and an inflation storm has struck. Joshua Rotbart, managing partner of J. Rotbart & Co., a precious metals service provider, said that among the precious metals, silver is the most promising one, because its value is far underestimated and is expected to rise by another 20% this year from the current price of $33 per ounce. Gold prices are even more likely to rise above historical highs reached last year.
Even though the price of silver has soared by more than 47% last year, Joshua Rotbart said in an interview with Oriental Daily that the price is still more than 40% lower than the historical high. “I believe there is still room for growth in silver. As the market expects that widespread vaccinations will drive economic recovery, silver will benefit from increased industrial demand. In addition, the social media Reddit’s army of retail investors switched to silver (Silver squeeze) has set off a wave of speculation in silver. Compared with gold, which aims to preserve capital, silver has more room for speculation.”
Gold prices may break the 2100 threshold in the final quarter
He pointed out that about 30% of his clients tend to invest in at least two precious metals, although the portfolio often changes. In the past two months there has clearly been more demand for silver. In addition, silver is cheaper than gold and has become popular with the younger generation in recent years.
The spot gold price closed at US$1,843.1 per ounce on Friday, down more than 10% from last year’s record high, as risk aversion has cooled due to the vaccination campaigns that started this year. However, Rotbart is still optimistic about gold, saying that gold prices have not yet peaked and are expected to rise as high as $2,100 by the end of this year, which is about 10% higher than last year.
He explained that people are aware that 2021 is likely to be “wiped out” by the coronavirus, whether in tourism, aviation, real estate or transportation, although it is possible to return to pre-epidemic levels this year. Even though the U.S. economy is starting to show signs of recovery, emerging markets such as Europe, India and the Philippines are still troubled by the pandemic. At the same time, governments around the world keep printing banknotes to protect the economy and suppress interest rates, resulting in rising inflation. These “fear factors” are going to lift up gold’s price up.
It is worth noting that the World Gold Council (WGC) data shows that the first quarter recorded 117.9 tons or US$9.5 billion of outflows from gold’s exchange traded funds (ETFs), but physical gold investments came in at 339.5 tons, a single quarter high since the end of 2016. He believes this reflects the fact that demand for physical gold remains rigid, adding that clients are more interested in investing in physical gold. Rotbart said the company’s gold trading in the first four months of the year alone was equivalent to last year’s total volume, without disclosing the actual amount.
The increase in physical gold trading is not unique to Asia or Hong Kong, Rotbart said. People only believe in directly owned physical assets – “everyone is afraid that if there is a problem with the integrity of the financial system, a repetition of the 2008 Lehman Brothers ‘explosion’ of the U.S. investment bank, financial assets may lose everything.”
Platinum supply is not enough to meet the strong demand
As for palladium and platinum, two other precious metals, he said that demand for platinum has been stable, but the shortage of supply has led to an imbalance between supply and demand, and it is believed that this year the price may rise as high as $1,350 per ounce. Demand for palladium, which is used in the manufacture of electric car batteries and solar panels, is expected to continue to rise, thanks to the promotion of clean energy policies in China and the U.S., driving palladium to US$3,100 per ounce over the year.
新冠肺炎肆虐全球近一年半仍未消退，各地央行只好加緊「放水」撐經濟，一場通脹風暴儼然來襲。貴金屬服務商J.Rotbart & Co.管理合夥人Joshua Rotbart表示，一眾貴金屬中，最看好白銀，因為價值遠被低估，更放言今年有望從現價再升20%，每安士或高見33美元；現貨金價更有望重返甚至升穿去年歷史高位。
即使銀價去年已狂飆逾47%，Joshua Rotbart接受本報專訪時表示，價格仍較歷史高位低逾四成，相信白銀仍有增長空間。由於市場憧憬疫苗廣泛接種後會帶動經濟復甦，白銀會受惠工業需求增加，加上社交網站Reddit散戶大軍轉戰白銀(Silver squeeze)更掀起炒銀潮。相對於以保本為目標的黃金，白銀更具炒作空間。
The story has been republished in:
Line Today – https://today.line.me/hk/v2/article/me38Jr